"We have already crossed critical climate destabilization tipping points well beyond what we are being told in the popular media." Lawrence Wollersheim
The Two Big Climate Destabilization Shockers You Need to Know Now to Wisely Plan Your Future:
The two big shockers of climate destabilization caused by fossil fuel induced global warming are:
Shocker 1.) No matter what we do now humanity will be sadly facing a global average temperature increase of 6-12 degrees Fahrenheit within as little as 40-70 years. This is that based on an internal dialectical meta-system analysis of over 7,000 pages of the current climate data research and summaries.
We have already passed by the long held average global climate temperature range maintenance tipping point. A four point six (4.6,) degree increase in global average temperature has been the official low and very optimistic estimate. This is based on a premise that everything happening in the climate system will always work perfectly in our favor and no known or unknown climate tipping points will be crossed. A six to eight degree Fahrenheit increase is the far more realistic and balanced projection. A 12 degree Fahrenheit or more increase in average global temperature is a pessimistic, but well warranted estimate.
The 12 degree Fahrenheit is based on if:
a.) we continue increasing our carbon pollution into the atmosphere at our current exponentially rising levels or,
b.) we cross any more of the many unknown climate system tipping points within the numerous critical sub-systems of the climate meta-system. (For a detailed discussion of the numerous climate tipping points, click here.)
Shocker 2.) Climate destabilization's first wave of super storms or "millennial storms" (storms that have not been seen for thousands or tens of thousands of years will not be coming 60-100 years from now as is currently thought. Our evaluation of the current climate data implies that these new super storms, super droughts, super floods and super wildfires etc will begin replacing the current extreme weather waves that we now experiencing in as little as 15 to 30 years. These new millennial super storms could be 20-50 percent stronger than anything that we have ever recorded.
Why will all this climate mess happen? Simply put, we did not drastically lower carbon pollution from fossil fuels a long time ago --- when we should have done so! It is unfortunate that we have basically "just talked" about fixing global warming for over 30 years.
To be absolutely clear.
The battle to minimize climate destabilization to less that 2 degrees Celsius (4.6 degrees Fahrenheit,) has already been lost! We all need to accept this harsh reality and we need to move on to preparing and adapting to what is coming --- while we still have time!
We now have no other prudent choice, but to do what ever we can to try to lessen the long term pain that humanity will endure. The good news is that we do still have enough time to prepare ourselves, our families, our businesses and nations for the tremendous stress that climate destabilization will put us into, but again, only if we get serious now and start preparing for it.
The popular media keeps telling us that the current climate target in average global temperature is no more than a 2 degree Celsius (4.6 degree Fahrenheit,) increase, but that is a virtual impossibility. It is a virtually impossible target due to the existing and "already built into the system" global warming atmospheric carbon levels as well as the exponentially increasing ongoing carbon pollution momentum. To make matters worse, almost every government or international 5-7 year update report coming out on the climate over the last 25 years has repeatedly adjusted their climate threat estimates whenever reissued to the negative by on the average 20-40%.
Some of the Science Behind the Two Climate Shockers:
Please now review the "Keating" Carbon in the Atmosphere graphs below for the last several hundred thousand years, since the industrial revolution and then going back millions of years. Notice that the average carbon parts per million (ppm) never rose much above 270 ppm until the industrial revolution. For hundreds of thousands of years before that it stayed close to that range. Only hundreds of millions of years ago was the carbon ppm levels much higher during Earth's more turbulent earlier developmental period.
Something has radically changed since the beginning of the fossil fuel powered industrial revolution of the 1880s. We have now crossed carbon 400 ppm. Extrapolating on the exponentially rising carbon levels each year, we find that we could be at carbon 550 ppm in as little as 30-40 years or less. [In 2013 we increased carbon by 2.9 ppm in just one year!] If we hit carbon 550 ppm as it appears we will, this "seals the deal" on radical destructive changes for most life on earth. And --- even if we stopped all carbon pollution from fossil fuel today, it is estimated that it will take hundreds of years to bring the atmosphere back to safe carbon ppm levels. We need to start preparing and adapting!
It appears global average temperature is now increasing about 1/2 degree F for every 25 additional parts per million of carbon going into the atmosphere or less. And that does not include any climate tipping points that come into play as the atmosphere heat up more and more and more carbon enters the atmosphere at a faster and faster rate.
This devastating failure to handle this atmospheric carbon pollution threat to life on Earth is also because of the massive global inertia surrounding effective, critical path "first things first" actions that were needed to be completed a long ago to avert the now near certain global average temperature increase of 6-12 degrees Fahrenheit.)
Increased or decreased carbon ppm in the atmosphere appears to have a direct or near direct relationship to rising and falling temperature all the way back to Earth's earliest times millions of years ago. Life as we know it today only really began to flourish when the carbon levels and temperatures were in a range closer to today.
In spite of the above facts about historic and current carbon pollution levels in the atmosphere, humanity is not adapting well to this or the many other disturbing global ecological, economic and political feedback signals. This climate data and many other signals are telling our national and global cultures that too many of our current lifestyle and livelihood practices are highly unsustainable or even destructive to the planetary bio-systems. Numerous scientists have already come out and said, "we have now entered into the Sixth Great Extinction period of human history." We believe they are right and that is a strong sign that we are in an evolutionary retrogression and bottleneck!
Everyday it is becoming more obvious to societies' most thoughtful and aware individuals that the current national and global cultures will soon going to go though a climate destabilization triggered natural and hopefully temporary evolutionary retrogression or, a cataclysmic massive adaptive readjustment or even possibly, a massive global systems collapse in an act of self-induced destructive creation.
In evolution when a part of a whole or a whole system continually fails to adapt to appropriate and/or increasing correctional feedback it is eventually broken down and recycled into new evolutionary experiments that hopefully will be better adapted and will be in better alignment with sustainable forms of progressive universe evolution.
We also firmly believe that at this time the global climate system has now been so degraded by the still escalating fossil fuel carbon pollution (which directly causes global warming,) that our ecosystems and other climate-dependent economic, social and political systems will eventually begin catastrophically collapsing in a natural chain reaction of interconnected dependencies.
This destabilization of the global climate (droughts, wildfires, floods and super storms of increasing scale, severity and frequency,) will also unfortunately converge into and then amplify and whipsaw many of the other national and global challenges that we now face. This perfect storm convergence of climate destabilization amplifying and whipsawing into other global problems will also push those other problems over their own respective tipping points as well. These national and global challenges beyond global warming will then be greatly magnified into even greater problems and catastrophes.
The main global challenges facing humanity today in a causal order are:
Challenge 1: Failure to evolve a global government with enforceable legislative, judicial and executive powers.
This single evolutionary failure of no effective planetary government then allows the following Great Evolutionary Bottleneck of global challenges to either occur, continue building unchecked or remain unresolved:
Challenge 2: Over Population: (Earth may have the more realistic carrying capacity for about 2 billion people. We are near 8 billion racing to 9 billion.)
Challenge 3: Climate Destabilization: Fueled by increasing population and increased use of carbon polluting energy sources we have radically increased global climate destabilization (global warming,) which then increases: reef collapse, desertification, coast line loss, species extinction and water pollution (from excessive ocean carbon capture, global warming ocean heat capture and other pollution sources.)
Challenge 4: Resource Depletion: Fueled by overpopulation and climate destabilization we are increasing deforestation, food shortages, (1 billion people are hungry now,) ocean fish stock losses and the early attainment of peak oil. (Depleting resources also increases global poverty.)
Challenge 5: Global Economic Instability: All of the above challenges then also increases global economic instability, economic inequality (conflicts between rich and poor,) and produces rising national deficits. (National deficits particularly in the US are rising in part to stay up with our growing global challenges and which are moving us ever closer toward a bursting global financial crisis and bubble.)
Challenge 6: Political Instability in Countries with Low Management and Resource Resilience: All of the previous above global challenges plus increased political instability then also act to further increase the likelihood of more wars, terrorism and political injustice. And finally,
Challenge 7: Global Pandemic: As all of the above resilience-reducing global challenges get worse this increases the growing possibility of a global pandemic. (This is due to existing or new diseases, the mobility and migration of world populations and the deterioration of global health services as the stew of all of the global challenges listed above comes to a global warming amplified feverish boil.)
Of all of the global challenges above, climate destabilization is the biggest multiplier and amplifier as well as most immediate and probable trigger for the greatest chain reaction of whipsawing ecological, economic, social and political system collapses in all of human history.
(Even if climate destabilization did not exist, the above list is reason enough to get prepared and have a community team around you that you can truly rely on.)
The list of challenges above implies to the wise that establishing prepared, safe micro-communities to survive the coming evolutionary retrogression and bottleneck as well as to model sustainability success is NOW! (Keep in mind it takes years to solidly establish these new communities and get them sustainability ready for what is coming.)
Keep reading there is much more. The links at the bottom of each page of this booklet allow you to go forward or back one page.