Universe Spirit Blogs

(Please note: The above animation gives temperature degrees in Celsius. For a quick rough Fahrenheit temperature conversion, double the Celsius amount. The video also presents near the end a polarized viewpoint of us against them [that is, us against the vested fossil fuel interests, corporations, and heavily lobbied governments.] It is still a well done animation that does an amazing job of explaining the basics of how and why catastrophic climate destabilization is unfolding. Our organization does not promote polarizing or dualistic approaches. We try to see things from the big-picture viewpoint of progressive universe evolution in which everyone and everything is learning from feedback and then either adapting and growing or if they down learn from feedback being broken down and being recycled.)

The Global Climate and Its Mysterious Tipping Points:

Climate systems are complex adaptive systems and most complex adaptive systems have tipping points. Those tipping points can cause sudden, unpredictable and severe changes or collapses.

Small changes in one sub-system can cause massive unpredictable changes in the master system or other related sub-systems. In complex adaptive systems, tipping points in the master climate system or in its subsystems can unpredictably whipsaw into each other or back into the master climate system, worsening it even faster.  

(If you do not understand the basics of complex adaptive systems and their high levels of unpredictability we strongly recommend that you click this complex adaptive systems link because understanding the climate as a complex adaptive system and its tipping point paradoxes will be greatly aided and simplified...)

In the face of more good climate destabilization science, even some leading global warming critics are also changing their long time positions. Additionally, the terms global warming and climate change have recently evolved into the new terms of climate destabilization or catastrophic climate destabilization. These new terms better reflect the existing and accurate reality of the human caused atmospheric pollution problem immediately before us.

Because overall research on climate destabilization is still so poorly funded, the world still does not know most of the actual tipping points of climate destabilization. When it comes to the climate destabilization tipping points we are still flying nearly blind -- even with the ultimate future of humanity's total evolutionary experiment at stake.

Current climate destabilization research cited in Six Degrees: Our Future On a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas has projected that climate destabilization related damage and losses will soon cost nations 5% of their total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and will likely continue rising far beyond there with each new level of climate destabilization's unfolding. This comes as devastatingly bad news for the economic markets because this additional 5% drain on the GDP can hardly be afforded by almost all nations still struggling to get out of the slowly resolving global recession and near depression.

Many countries are already experiencing resource shortage based spikes in food costs. The normally insulated US will likely follow at some point because of the year-to-year averaging of the resilience-reducing effects of escalating climate destabilization.

In spite of all the new science on climate destabilization and its projected effects, few individuals, corporations or nations have worked out even the most basic preparation and adaptation plans to cope with the increasing scale, severity and frequency of the effects of catastrophic climate destabilization.

The Key Climate Destabilization Tipping Points Are:

(If you have not done so already, we strongly recommend that you view a very well done 10 minute video animation that graphically explains many of the different climate tipping points as well as the overall climate tipping point crisis. To view this video illustration of climate tipping point issues, click here. This video will help make the following tipping point descriptions easier and more useful...)

How can we resolve any problem without accurate information? The most scary thing about climate destabilization is that the research is far too sparse right now on the accurate tipping points catastrophic of climate destabilization. It is so sparse that no one can yet conclusively tell us:

a.) is the global average temperature going to go up an additional maximum of  2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 degrees Celsius? That is 4-16 degrees Fahrenheit. And, no one can tell us exactly which of those temperatures will we be at in the next 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 or 100 years.

b.) Is sea level going to go up less than one meter, 1-3 meters, 8 meters (if all Greenland ice melts,) or up to 25 meters (if all the other polar and glacial ice melts too). Again, no one can tell us exactly which of those sea level ranges will we be at in 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 or 100 years. (The current conservative estimate for sea level rise in the next 100 years is 1-2 meters of sea level rise, but that is if no tipping points are crossed!)

This estimate of 1-2 meters in sea level rise simply does not factor in any major climate tipping points being crossed during the projected time period, which could throw the climate into a sudden and steep decline toward greater destabilization. This sea level rise also does not include any of the additional temporary rises in sea level at this new level caused by storm surges.

Even if you do not include these two factors, just the 1-2 meter rise in sea level would cost the global human society hundreds of trillions of dollars in losses in coastal real estate and coastal infrastructure. (Highways, water treatment and wastewater systems, etc. close to the water would all have to be rebuilt and relocated.)

To put this in perspective, in 2008 the Wall Street market crash cost an estimated 28 trillion dollars and brought the world to the edge of global depression. At 8 meters of sea level rise (the melting of the the Greenland ice sheet,) an estimated half of the world's population would have to migrate. This would result in hundreds of trillions of dollars in real estate and infrastructure losses.

c.) What level of carbon and methane pollution (measured in parts per million [ppm],) produces each specific level of temperature increase or sea level rise? When exactly will we reach the various levels of projected human-caused atmospheric carbon pollution levels measured in parts per million;  i.e. carbon 450, carbon 550, carbon 650, carbon 850, etc?

We are currently at about 400 carbon ppm. (Carbon 430 if you include methane in the atmosphere.) Some our best scientists warn that anything over carbon 350 is courting climate catastrophe and that carbon 450 is near certain and potentially irreversible climate destabilization. We are currently adding approximately 2 ppm of carbon to the atmosphere per year, but that current annual 2 carbon ppm amount except for 2014, appears to be rising in a nonlinear,  exponential growth curve as well.

d.) Will the many wildcard climate feedback loop variables amplifying the speed of temperature rise and sea level rise occur faster and more unpredictably than anyone could have imagined or, worse yet, have we already crossed these tipping points? Will these wildcard feedback loop variables whipsaw back on each other and between each other in unpredictable ways that are absolutely normal to complex adaptive systems like the climate?

These feedback loops and climate tipping point wildcards would be things like:

1.) massive loss of the atmospheric carbon-eating forests because of heat, drought, and wildfires,

2.) massive releases of methane from the warming and decaying of the permafrost near the polar areas (methane produces 20 times the greenhouse heat-holding effect that carbon does for three years in the atmosphere before it decays back into simple carbon again),

3.) massive die offs of the carbon-eating sea plankton because of the growing carbonization and acidification of the oceans,

4.) massive loss of white polar and glacial ice that reflects much earth-heating solar heat back into space in what is called the Albedo effect and, the greatest threat of all ---

5.) what level of rising ocean temperature will thaw and release the gigatons of frozen methane hydrate crystals trapped along the continental shelves of our oceans and in the permafrost of the frozen tundra around the world.

A sudden mega release of carbon into the atmosphere from methane hydrate crystals has been predicted to be to what could become the last great planetary extinction event that will leave either no one left or as few as 200 million of us left living close to the poles. Scientists have theorized this massive methane release occurred once before millions of years ago and was the most probable cause of one of the 5 previous great mass extinction events of our planetary history. It was called the PETM extinction event. Also see Six Degrees: Our Future On a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas for more information on this. The 200 million survivor scenario is from The Vanishing Face of Gaia by James Lovelock.

Inside the methane release wildcard, whether it's from the frozen tundra or from the ocean's coastal shelves is a another even more dangerous wildcard.

6.) the climate destabilization caused pandemic wildcard. When ice or frozen tundra that is hundreds of thousands of years old melts, the melting releases bacteria and viruses that are still alive that have never been seen by the human body or human species in its total history. This means we could be unleashing the ultimate pandemic upon humanity. With the rapid melting of global ice, glaciers, and tundra we could be releasing so many different types of bacteria and viruses that even our best scientists could not keep up with creating the new vaccines in sufficient global quantities in time to contain the new disease outbreaks and pandemics…

7.) there is also the whipsaw multiplier effect. The whipsaw multiplier effect occurs when the tipping points of one system crash into another inter-connected system. Of everything mentioned so far, this may be the most dangerous--and unfortunately the least currently predictable--of all tipping points and wildcards. This is due to the woeful inadequacy of current tipping point research funding.

Tipping points even in seemingly unrelated systems can mean a lot for getting the climate re-stabilized. For example, the seemingly unrelated tipping points of peak oil being fully known could make a tremendous difference and boost political will to resolve climate destabilization and move to low carbon and methane pollution green energy generation. If we are already out of enough easy to reach, cost effective and environmentally safe to extract "cleaner" fossil fuels, knowing that fact will be a tremendous additional incentive to move rapidly to green energy generation. (Yes, there still are very some very hard to reach, cost ineffective [unless we go to $150 per barrel or more prices,] environmentally unsafe to extract, dirty to burn fossil fuels such as oil from tar sands. Extracting those remaining fossil fuels should be seen as the beginning of the end of hope in the climate battle.)

Because fossil fuels provide so many other product like fertilizers, drugs, and other critical plastics, knowing the peak oil tipping points as they relate to the destabilizing climate and new forms of green energy generation is a must! What if we discover there is only enough easy to reach, cost effective, and environmentally safe to extract "cleaner" fossil fuels for just our fertilizers, critical plastics, and some reduced transportation for the next 25-35 years? We urgently need to know what is the  prediction for the minimal years needed to make the transition to green energy generation to power our transportation needs without putting the climate into irreversible destabilization or an extinction level event.

e.) What is the momentum and/or inertia tipping points of heat capture in the oceans caused by the increasing temperature in the atmosphere? Oceans take up and release atmospheric heat slowly, and there is a lag time because of this inertia/momentum issue. This means that any changes we make now to reduce atmospheric carbon pollution may not have any significant effect for 50 years or more because of inertia/momentum of previously captured heat by the oceans.

This additional set of ocean temperature inertia/momentum tipping points must also be factored into all the climate model calculations with all of the other still unknown climate tipping points. The population of earth needs to prepared. If we immediately stopped all human caused carbon pollution today, the temperature of the planet still may continue going up to critical levels for another 50-100 years or more--just due to ocean heating inertia/momentum and tipping points.

Aside from the tipping points of carbonization, plankton, and heat absorption, there is the potential effect of carbon pollution and warming on major ocean currents that help to stabilize our weather and seasons. Research is now being conducted on this and how it might affect things like the critical North Atlantic current. If the North Atlantic current were slowed or diverted, it would create significant changes in weather patterns, which would affect growing seasons, rain, snowfall, and temperature--all of which have strong effects on crop yields.

Another tipping point relating to the oceans is whether the heat now being captured by the oceans and sent to lower levels of the ocean will reach a tipping point in the near future. These masses of deep warm water could suddenly rise to the surface again and radically change global weather even faster.

f.) There are other key tipping points in the complex adaptive global climate system such as the total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. That increases with more heat, which then creates more water vapor and then more heat in an endless heat increasing positive feedback cycle. The quantity and quality of trees in the planetary environment that can remove or add carbon to the atmosphere. These and many other climate tipping points must be discovered so we have both the right risk analysis and can create the right first things first plan for the challenge.

g.) There are also new potential critical climate tipping points being discovered such as the total weight of the melting ice tipping point. New research predicts that as the ice melts off areas where the ice is sitting on land masses that that the unweighting of these land masses can cause shifts in the tectonic plates of the planet--causing earthquakes and volcanic eruptions at a scale that we have not seen on the planet for ages. If the shifting of these tectonic plates causes numerous or massive volcanic eruptions around the planet,we could go into a sudden volcanic winter. If the shifting tectonic plates trigger a supervolcanic eruption, the years that the sun would be blocked could kill off most of the human population.

h.) There are also human system tipping points. Political and social inertia also has to be factored into realistic solution calculations. It takes about 25-50 years to evolve a whole industry from one product, manufacturing, and distribution system to another. It has been estimated that if every nation on the planet immediately enforced heavy penalties on all forms of carbon pollution and stopped constructing coal energy generation plants, in 25-50 years we would have only about a 50-80 drop in current human caused carbon pollution levels. That has not happened yet. Based on current attitudes and politics it has almost no chance of happening.

Estimating political, economic, and social take-action tipping points will also be critical to all climate destabilization supercomputer models if we are ever going to enact a calculated solution to this shared global threat. Who knows when  there will be verifiable and enforceable international environmental law on carbon pollution and the key human system action tipping point will be reached.

Now consider this scary thought: most of the above climate wildcards and inaccurately predicted tipping points are NOT currently built into and used by current professional climate prediction models. The research on when these tipping points and wildcards will occur is just not there yet. Even the IPCC's 2014 four scenarios on what level of carbon ppm in the atmosphere will produce exactly what degree of temperature increase or sea level rise do not include the above relevant climate tipping point information. Nor do they tell us with any real or dependable specificity when various temperatures and rising sea level predictions will be met under current conditions.

Also keep in mind that in IPPC reports the IPPC predicted that Arctic summer sea ice would remain to some degree until about 2050. New research shows the tipping point for Arctic summer ice being gone will occur in 2017-2025. This means that in 2007 they were 38 - 25 years off on a key prediction just 43 years into the future. That is a key climate prediction that is approximately 60-80 percent wrong!

If the IPPC was that far off with just one tipping point linked item, how far off and overly enthusiastic or conservative are they with their other prediction calculations? The unspoken fear is  that catastrophic climate destabilization is proceeding much faster toward irreversible climate destabilization than any of our predictions because of all the missing tipping point data and missing wildcard factors in our current climate prediction models.

If that was not bad enough, there are also many ways these tipping points and wildcards can whipsaw against each other and the overall climate and become multiplying or reinforcing positive feedback loops that would make sea levels rise and the temperature rise far faster and sooner than anyone has predicted. What if the rise in temperature causes the melting permafrost to cross its tipping point where, instead of releasing methane in a linear progression, it tips over into an exponential progression, releasing far more methane into the atmosphere. (To make matters even worse methane has 20 times the heat-holding greenhouse effect of simple carbon.)

This surge in atmospheric greenhouse heat energy retention from the exponential tipping point release of methane then also causes the global temperature to surge exponentially. This triggers the ice melting tipping points where the already vulnerable West Antarctica ice shelf breaks off, destabilizing much of the the surrounding ice causing it too to break off the ice shelf and begin melting in the sea. Because the West Antarctic ice shelves have broken off, it then accelerates the slide the West Antarctica inner ice towards release into the ocean as well. Sea levels will rises dramatically beyond all predictions with so much ice sliding into the ocean.

The temperature surge causes massive melting in Greenland and other areas causing another tipping point to be reached. This massive loss of sun reflecting ice called the Albedo effect causes another surge in global temperature. The previous crossed climate system tipping points will add so much additional heat energy to the atmosphere that new more frequent and intense droughts and wildfires would kill off atmospheric carbon eating trees. This then crosses another tipping point because far less carbon is being naturally absorbed by trees.

This then causes another spike and surge in global temperature which causes the other tipping points to further whipsaw into each other and deteriorate even faster. This then causes a massive die off of sea plankton (that also "eat" and absorb carbon) due to the acidification of the oceans.

The whipsawing and self reinforcing positive feedback loops of all the above tipping points and wildcards collectively cause another climate tipping point to be crossed as the ocean begins to warm exponentially as well. (The oceans are the main place that atmospheric heat is eventually captured. When heat is captured in the oceans, the heat causes the seas to expand also contributing to sea level rise.) The oceans keep heating up until the major catastrophic tipping point is crossed where frozen methane hydrate crystals begin to thaw in mass and suddenly release gigatons of additional methane into the atmosphere, spiking both temperature and sea levels once again to near extinction level events.

Still missing from the above climate tipping point issue is that no one can currently say with any accuracy at what point do we finally cross from near extinction climate destabilization to extinction level climate destabilization. No one can tell us what single or collection of tipping point actions will do it or, if we have already crossed that final irreversible tipping point. This is again because the science is so incomplete and underfunded. This ultimately makes our growing human-caused carbon and methane pollution of the atmosphere the single most dangerous and potentially destructive blind experiment in all of human history.

Increasing human-caused carbon pollution in the atmosphere has the potential to cause more human suffering and death as well as political, social and economic destabilization than the total sum of all wars in all of human history. In spite of this shocking and real climate-caused possibility, as of yet, it is believed that no national intelligence agency in any country (even some with their supercomputers and unlimited budgets,) has either discovered or published accurate tipping point research or answers to any of the climate tipping point questions and wildcard issues mentioned above.

This in and of itself should be viewed by every citizen as the greatest single national security failure by the world's intelligence agencies. In not briefing the politicians and the general public on the full risk analysis and tipping points of climate destabilization tipping points they are failing in their most basic of duties ---- to protect their own populations and respective national security interests from real threats. These escalating and potentially game-ending threats to our nations, our civilization and human life as we know it lie absolutely at fair core responsibilities to their nations.

Some experts fear that when more science is available on these climate tipping points we may be too late. We will suddenly discover ourselves to be either already beyond or soon beyond the critical climate tipping points.

If we have already passed any major climate tipping point unknowingly, we may be experiencing significantly worse climate extremes in as little as 5-15 years. Others researchers suggest we have 20-30 years while other researchers say it will take 30-60 years.

Good climate destabilization tipping point research is simply just not available or robust enough yet. If it was, it would allow us to do a much more accurate risk analysis and decide which researchers are more right or more wrong. Without this critical climate tipping point research being completed, it is also impossible to propose and implement a properly sequenced, optimally effective and rational plan that is properly prioritized and know it will work in time to prevent the worst of the consequences of irreversible or near extinction climate destabilization.

"Under any condition, circumstance or excuse, not resolving global warming in time to avert the increasing probability of irreversible climate destabilization (and its dangerous average global temperature increase,) is simply a "bet" that no individual, corporation, nation or humanity can EVER afford to place! This is because gambling with the known and unknown tipping points of irreversible climate destabilization and losing this gambling bet comes with such a "gambling debt" no individual, corporation, or nation (or even all nations together,) will EVER be able to pay off or recover from even a fraction of it during their life cycles.

This global climate truth means we have to stop gambling with the future of humanity now and remove the escalating climate destabilization bet that we have currently and unknowingly placed on the table. Not making radical and immediate change to remove our bad climate bet is like a government leaving nuclear reactors unattended and nuclear weapons unguarded.

No government official in their right mind would do this, but that is exactly what we are doing with our escalating climate destabilization "nuclear time bomb" when we continue to gamble foolishly betting that we will be safe from the known and unknown tipping points of irreversible climate destabilization.

We must now begin preparing and adapting for the worsening climate destabilization. We must also do our utmost to lessen global warming just enough to prevent it from ever becoming an irreversible climate destabilization that could last for either hundreds or thousands of years. If irreversible climate destabilization does occur, it will create unimaginable suffering beyond any scale, scope, or severity that we have ever seen before in human history and it will continue for generations to come." --Lawrence Wollersheim

When you look at all of the climate tipping points and wildcards listed above, you then clearly see the climate destabilization risk that simply cannot ever be taken! No nation, leader or corporation ever  has the right to to act for all humanity and its future and place the bet that we will not cross these critical climate tipping points and go over the climate cliff.

Also, if any of the above tipping points do occur, no one has the right to  promise" some new technology will soon be found "just in time" to save us from extinction as a species. This is another foolish climate bet that encourages us to go on as we are now. This dangerous promise should never be placed or relied upon anywhere, at any time by any person or group.

Don't rely on last minute undiscovered new technologies to save us from climate destabilization. The responsibility is ours. It is now up to us to worked diligently and with urgency to reverse climate destabilization with a full commitment from every level of government, business and every individual citizen because of the unknown climate tipping points and wild cards mentioned above...