The Tipping Points of Catastrophic, Irreversible & Extinction Level Climate Destabilization, The World's Most Valuable Information

The current climate destabilization problem is rather simple at it center and complex as you move out from there. Human-caused carbon pollution of the atmosphere is causing a greenhouse effect trapping more solar energy in the form of heat inside our atmospheric greenhouse. This additional trapped increase in atmospheric heat energy is then available for use in and by the planet's weather (monsoons, hurricanes, typhoons, (and their storm surges,) heat waves, droughts, dust storms, wildfires, floods, etc.) This continually increasing trapped heat energy from the increasing greenhouse effect is what is and will continue to create increasing cycles of greater climate destabilization and more and greater weather extremes. And --- this climate destabilization will increase in both unpredictable and irregular cycles of weather extremes of increasing scale, frequency and severity eventually leading to irreversible catastrophic climate destabilization. 

 

These weather extremes mean many new and extreme challenges for the world. Our current infrastructure (dikes, dams, levies, water and sewage treatment plants and much of our other infrastructure,) has most often been designed to withstand the extreme climate events that occur about once every hundred years ( aka Century storms.) The increasing extreme weather and storms caused by our ever-increasing human-caused atmospheric carbon pollution will eventually become known as millennial storms --- climate events of such an extreme and severity that there has been nothing like them seen on the planet for thousand of years.

 

That is the simplicity of climate destabilization, but there are other important and complex contributing sub-factors such as the key climate tipping points.

 

The Global Climate and Its Key Tipping Points

 

Climate systems are complex adaptive systems and complex adaptive systems have tipping points. Those tipping points can cause sudden, unpredictable and severe changes and collapses. Small changes in one sub-system can cause massive unpredictable massive changes in the master system or related systems. In complex adaptive systems tipping points in the master climate system or in its sub systems can unpredictably whipsaw into each other and into the master climate system.  

 

(If you do not understand the basics of complex adaptive systems and their unpredictability we strongly recommend that you click this complex adaptive systems link because understanding the climate as a complex system and its tipping point paradoxes will be greatly aided and simplified.)

 

Tipping Points

 

Because overall research on CCD is still so poorly funded, the world still does not know the tipping points of critical catastrophic climate destabilization. When it comes to the climate destabilization tipping points we are still flying nearly blind --- even with the ultimate future of humanity's evolutionary experiment at stake.

 

Current climate destabilization research cited in Six Degrees: Our Future On a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas has projected that CCD related damage and losses will soon cost nations 5% of their total Gross Domestic Product (GDP,) and will likely continue rising far beyond there with each new level of CCD's unfolding. This comes as devastatingly bad economic news for the markets because this additional 5% drain on the GDP can hardly be afforded by the nations of a planet that is still struggling to get out of the current global recession and near depression.
 

Many countries are already experiencing resource shortage based spikes in food costs. The normally insulated US will likely follow soon because of the year-to-year averaging of the resilience-reducing effects of escalating CCD.

 

In spite of all the new science on climate destabilization and its projected effects, few individuals, corporations or nations have worked out even basic preparation and adaptation plans to cope with the increasing scale, severity and frequency of the effects of catastrophic climate destabilization.

 

The Key Climate Destabilization Tipping Points

 

(Before continuing reading, we strongly recommend that you view a very well done 10 minute video animation that graphically explains many of the different climate tipping points as well as the overall climate tipping point crisis. To view this video illustration of climate tipping point issues, click here. This video will help make the following sections considerably easier and more useful...)

 

How can we resolve any problem without accurate information about that problem? The most scary thing about CCD is that CCD research is far too sparse right now on the accurate tipping points catastrophic of climate destabilization. It is so sparce that no one can yet conclusively tell us:
 

a.) is the global average temperature going to go up an additional maximum of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 degrees Celsius? That is 4-16 degrees Fahrenheit. And, no one can tell us yet exactly, which of those temperatures will we be at in the next 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 or 100 years?
 

b.) Is sea level going to go up less than one meter, 1-3 meters, 8 meters (if all Greenland ice melts,) or up to 25 meters (if all the other polar and glacial ice melts too?) Again, no one can tell us exactly yet, which of those sea level ranges will we be at in 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 or 100 years? (The current conservative estimate for sea level rise in the next 100 years is 1-2 meters of sea level rise.

 

This estimate of 1-2 meters does not factor in any major climate tipping points being crosses during the projected period reached, which would throw the climate into a sudden and steep decline toward greater destabilization. This sea level rise also does not include and of the additional temporary rises in sea level at this new level caused by storm surges. Even if you do not including these two factors, just the 1-2 meter rise in sea level would cost the global human society hundreds of trillions of dollars in losses in coastal real estate and coastal infrastructure (highways, water treatment and waster water systems, etc would have to be rebuilt and relocated.)

 

To put this in perspective, in 2008 the Wall St market crash cost will markets an estimated 28 trillion dollars and brought the world to the edge of global depression. At 8 meters of sea level rise (the melting of the the Greenland ice sheet,) an estimated 1/2 of the world's population would have to migrate resulting in thousands of trillions of dollars in real estate and infrastructure losses.)
 

c.) At what level of carbon pollution in the atmosphere (measured in parts per million [ppm],) will produce which level of temperature increase and sea level rise --- and once again most importantly, when will we reach the various levels of projected human-caused atmospheric carbon pollution measured in parts per million;  i.e. carbon 450, carbon 550, carbon 650, carbon 850, etc?

(We are currently at about 400 carbon ppm. (Carbon 430 if you include methane in the atmosphere.) Some our best scientists warn that anything over carbon 350 is courting climate catastrophe and that carbon 450 is near certain and potentially irreversible CCD. (We are currently adding approximately 2 ppm of carbon to the atmosphere per year, but that current annual 2 carbon ppm amount now appears to be rising in a non-linear, now exponential growth curve as well.)
 

d.) Will the many game-changing or wildcard feedback loop variables effecting the speed of temperature rise and sea level rise occur faster and more unpredictably than anyone could have imagined or, have we already crossed these tipping points? Will these game-changing or wildcard feedback loop variables whipsaw back on each other and between each other in ways unpredictable but common to complex systems like the climate?

These feedback loops and climate wild cards would be things like massive loss of the atmospheric carbon-eating forests because of heat, drought and wildfires, massive releases of methane from the warming and decaying of the permafrost near the polar areas, (methane produces 20 times the greenhouse heat-holding effect that carbon does for three years in the atmosphere before it decays back into simple carbon again,) massive die offs of the carbon-eating sea plankton because of the growing carbonization and acidification of the oceans, massive loss of white polar and glacial ice that reflects much earth-heating solar heat back into space in what is called the Albedo effect and, the greatest threat of all --- at what level of rising ocean temperature will we thaw and release the gigatons of frozen methane hydrate crystals trapped along the continental shelves of our oceans.

Now consider this, too many the above climate wild cards and still inaccurately predicted tipping points are NOT currently built into and used by climate prediction models because the research on when these tipping points and will cards will occur is just not there yet. Even the IPPC's 2007 leading predictions on what level of carbon in the atmosphere will produce what degree of temperature increase and what level of sea level rise do not include all the fully researched and determined relevant climate tipping point information (as mentioned above,) nor do they tell us with specificity when these temperatures and rising sea level predictions will be met under current conditions.

 

Also keep in mind that In that report the IPPC predicted that Arctic summer sea ice would remain to some degree until about 2050. New research shows the tipping point for Arctic summer ice being gone will occur in 2017-2025. They were 38 - 25 years off on a prediction just 43 years into the future in 2007. That is a prediction that is approximately 60-80 percent wrong.

 

If the IPPC was that far off with just one tipping point item, how far off and overly enthusiastic or conservative are they with their other prediction calculations? The unspoken fear and 800-pound gorilla in the room when climate scientists gather is fear that catastrophic climate destabilization is proceeding much faster than any of our predictions because of all the missing tipping point data and missing factors in our current climate models.

 

If that was not bad enough, there are also many ways these tipping points and wild cards can whipsaw against each other and the overall climate and become reinforcing feedback looks that would make sea levels rise and the temperature rise far faster and sooner that anyone has predicted. For example, what if the rise in temperature causes the melting permafrost to cross its tipping point where instead of releasing methane in a linear progression, it tips over into an exponential progression releasing far more methane into the atmosphere. (Methane has 20 times the heat-holding greenhouse effect of simple carbon.) This surge in atmospheric greenhouse heat energy retention from methane then causes the global temperature to surge exponentially. Then triggers the ice melting tipping points where the already vulnerable West Antarctica ice shelf breaks off destabilizing much of the the surrounding ice causing it too to break off the ice shelf and begin melting in the sea. The temperature surge causes massive melting in Greenland and other areas causing another tipping point to be reached --- the massive loss of heat and sun reflecting ice (the Albedo effect,) causes another surge in global temperature.

 

The previous crossed tipping points have added so much additional heat energy to the atmosphere that droughts and wild fires cause a massive kill off of atmospheric carbon eating trees, which then crosses another tipping point because far less carbon is being naturally being eaten by trees. This then causes another spike and surge in global temperature which makes many of the other tipping points factors deteriorate even faster and this then causes a massive die off of sea plankton (that also eat carbon,) due to the acidification of the oceans now absorbing more and more of the carbon pollution that was in the past converted by trees and plankton to oxygen or other harmless substances.

 

The whipsawing and self reinforcing feedback loops of all the tipping points and wild cards collectively cause a tipping point to be crossed in ocean heating and the ocean begins to warm exponentially as well. (The oceans are the main place that atmospheric heat is eventually captured. When heat is captured in the oceans the heat causes the seas to expand also contributing to sea level rise.) The oceans keep heating up until the major catastrophic tipping point is crossed where frozen methane hydrate crystals begin to thaw in mass and suddenly release gigatons of additional methane into the atmosphere spiking both temperature and sea levels once again to extinction level events.

 

Still missing from the above climate tipping point issue is that no one can currently say with any accuracy at what point do we finally across the last tipping point of irreversible catastrophic climate destabilization. No one currently can tell us what action will do it or, if we have already crossed that final irreversible tipping point. This is again because the science is so incomplete and underfunded. This ultimately makes our growing human-caused carbon pollution of the atmosphere the single most dangerous and potentially destructive blind experiment in all of human history.

 

Some researchers have implied that the increasing human-caused carbon pollution in the atmosphere has the potential to cause more human suffering and death as well as political, social and economic destabilization than the total sum of all wars in all of human history. In spite of this shocking and real climate caused possibility, as of yet, no national intelligence agency in any country (even with all their super computers and unlimited budgets,) has either discovered or published the accurate tipping point answers to any of the tipping point questions and wildcard issues mentioned above. This in and of itself should by viewed by every citizen as the greatest single national security failure by the world's intelligence agencies to protect their own populations and respective national security interests from a real, growing and potentially game-ending threat to civilization and human life as we know it.
 

Some experts fear that when more science is in on these climate tipping points we may too late discover ourselves to be either already beyond or soon beyond the critical tipping points. If we have passed any major climate tipping point unknowingly, we may be experiencing significantly worst climate extremes in as little as 5-15 years. Others researchers suggest we have 20-30 years until it gets really bad while other researchers say it will take 50-100 years.

Good CCD tipping point research is simply just not solid enough yet. If it was, it would allow us to decide which researchers with differing time estimates for when the worse CCD consequences will hit us right or wrong. Without this critical climate tipping point research being completed, it is also impossible to propose and implement an optimally effective and rational plan and know it will work in time to prevent the worst of the consequences of catastrophic climate destabilization.

 

The Perfect Storm of the Unknown Climate Tipping Points

The two most dangerous facts about the climate:

1.) Climate systems are complex adaptive systems and complex adaptive systems can have tipping points. 

2.) Current climate science on many of the critical climate tipping points is grossly incomplete and underfunded. Tipping points can cause sudden, unpredictable and severe changes and collapses. In complex adaptive systems tipping points in the master climate system or in its sub systems can unpredictably whipsaw into each other and into the master climate system. 

This complex adaptive system tipping point unpredicableness factor is critical because unfortunately as climate research stands now, no one can currently say with any degree accuracy at what point does our atmospheric carbon pollution experiment cross the final tipping points of irreversible or extinction-level climate destabilization. No one can tell us what exact carbon pollution level or climate system temperature tipping point or other action will do it --- or even worse, if we have already gone off that climate cliff and crossed that final climate tipping point of irreversibility. (To get up to speed on the specific tipping points of the climate and its subsystems watch a 10 minute video that graphically explains many tipping points by clicking here and go to the section half way down the page.) Unbelievably, with it's many still unknown climate tipping points, this makes human-caused carbon pollution of the atmosphere the single most dangerous and destructive blind experiment and looming disaster in all of human history.

As an example of the unresearched or incomplete tipping point research problem and dilemma take the example of our current best science computer models for when the Northwest Passage above Canada and Russia will be ice free during the summers. In 2007 they predicted this would not happen until 2035 to 2050. Now just a few years later based on the current escalating warming they now predict that in 2015-2020 the Northwest Passage will be completely ice free during the summers.

This means in just 7 years our best-science predictions had to be corrected by 30-35 years over a 43 year total prediction period. This means the best time predictions of 2007 were 60-70 percent off. What is really scary about this is what if many of the other time predictions of climate destabilization made the the 2007 IPPC report are also off by 60-70 % because of lack of tipping point research?  What if what the IPPC is predicting in 2100 will actually happen in 2040 or 2050? What if the level of storms, flooding, wildfires, heat waves, migrating insect infestations and droughts of increasing exponential scale, severity and frequency that were predicted for 2060-2080 started arriving from 2020-2040?

Can we really trust any temperature increase of sea level rise predictions and timetables in any meaningful way until far more climate system and sub-system research is done? And most importantly, what does this new absence of adequate climate tipping point research mean to our current strategies and timetables for preparing for and dealing with catastrophic climate destabilization? Are we using near useless current climate prediction timeframes? (Read about the major climate system and sub-system tipping points that are not adequately researched and often missing from many of our climate temperature and sea level rise prediction calculations by clicking here.) 

Now add to this new research by climate scientists that the Earth's climate is capable of major average temperature changes over large and small areas in much shorter time than ever imagined. First they thought major average temperature changes took thousands of years, then centuries now there is new research to show that in just decades average temperature can change can be significant. (New research has show that in the past the average temperature over the Greenland area increased 7 degrees Celsius (about 12-14 degrees Fahrenheit,) in just 2-5 decades. 

All of the above tipping point data makes the incompletely researched climate tipping situation the perfect scenario for the Perfect Climate Storm that can quickly lead us over the climate cliff to irreversible climate destabilization and collapse.  Not knowing or ignoring these climate tipping points issues and their potentially drastic and rapid consequences is a risk we REALLY do not want to take. (If you have not seen this 9 minute climate destabilization risk analysis video, do so now so that you fully understand why we must act now and collectively and how we can be smarter in managing the blind climate experiment that we are all unknowingly participating in. This video and its earlier version have had millions of views in spite of its sometimes comical presentation of such a serious issue.)

And finally, as if all the above was not bad enough, the nongovernmental environmental movement, which originally broke this issue has not in any well-coordinated way made irreversible or extinction-level climate destabilization the keystone environmental issue of our time. It is after all the issue upon which almost all other environmental issues will depend, be determined or be severely to significantly impacted. In spite of all of the worthy work that the environmental movement is doing in other areas, it cannot seem get it's coordinated act together on this Job One for all Humanity.

Let's be honest with ourselves. The first battle against the rising of climate destabilization has been resoundingly lost. We are in a planetary state of emergency. It is now time to start the second battle of the climate war, which is --- preparing for it --- in order to lessen the suffering and to survive!

The Likely Future: Prepare, Adapt and Where Still Possible Mitigate

Human history has resoundingly demonstrated that people, businesses and nations do not normally make the kind of major and costly changes needed until "the pain of going forward is less than the pain of where they are." This implies that until the climate destabilization crisis becomes far, far worse than hurricane Sandy was, (which will cost the U.S. in excess of 100 billion dollars,) it is unlikely that much if any effective national or international climate stabilization actions will be taken and, by that time, because of new tipping points being crossed, it could easily be too late to avert irreversible or extinction-level climate destabilization.  Unless there is a miracle, it is not likely that the world's politicians will do anything substantive until we start having regular climate destabilization mega-disasters each costing somewhere in the range of 1/4 to 1/2 trillion dollars each.

This likely ongoing failure to act collectively with enforceable international laws also implies that we need to prepare for and adapt to these worsening climate conditions now, then do what we can to help mitigate (lessen,) the effects of the rapidly escalating climate destabilization already upon us and finally, to do whatever we can to survive after that.

"We need to understand that the stability of our global climate is the essential and conditioning "game board" upon which all life and all of life's games and goals are played. If this master conditioning game board of life is destabilized, it will destabilize all of our other sub-game boards (our current economic, social and political games.)

This is painfully true because the stability of our climate is the indispensable stability and containing space within which all of the games of a stable and normal life depend and take place. Not many people really get that almost everything that they are currently doing within their personal, business and political lives will become increasingly destabilized as their local climate destabilizes and their local support systems collapse as the global climate and master "game board" becomes more destabilized.

We need to begin thinking about irreversible climate destabilization like a slow-moving, but still game-ending asteroid that is on an extinction event level collision course with Earth. When you finally get this, you will begin to understand the seriousness of why we must prepare ourselves and act now to immediately try to lessen the escalating cataclysmic climate destabilization that is already upon us." Lawrence Wollersheim

At this point you ar)e probably wondering what can you do to help or how soon will the worst of catastrophic or irreversible climate destabilization occur? You will have to read the tipping point linked research and other Job One for Humanity sections farther down this page and on this website for that information.

The World's Most Valuable Knowledge:

Catastrophic climate destabilization is complex. It takes real effort and dialectical systems thinking skill sets to understand the current science and uncover the gaping lack of reliable information concerning the correct time frames, evolving locations and consequences for the climate destabilization tipping points.

 

Once I personally really understood coming consequences of increasing CCD and our current state of collective lack of understanding it, I realized how unlikely it is that our governments will address CCD in time to avoid real global climate catastrophe. Because of this realization I became deeply saddened for months.

 

It then became crystal clear that we do not have a science grounded plan to reverse CCD that has wide agreement because we do not have scientific clarity on the climate destabilization tipping points and specifically what nasty consequences WILL occur when and where. Climate science in these areas is still far too nebulous and fuzzy on concrete consequences that will occur at specific locations and when. If this data was more settled and nearly incontrovertible to the rational among us, we would at least be able to create a effective science-based plan that would engender collective agreement and action and --- would save our collective and individual bacon if that is still possible!
 

There are still many CCD deniers, ignorers and uninformed. If we do not immediately change our carbon polluting ways both individually or collectively we will all have to begin preparation and adaption strategies for the emerging ecological, economic and societal nightmare. To help inform about these problems our organization has created many web pages and blog posts that help you understand the scale of the CCD problem in more detail, particularly strategies to mitigate, prepare for or adapt to CCD.

 

Knowing when, where and to what level the key climate destabilization tipping points and wild cards will occur as well as more about their most probable chain of consequences is currently the world's most valuable information! Those nations, corporations, markets and individuals who possess it first not only have a vast survival edge, they can also prepare for or capitalize on that information to potentially become the most powerful and wealthy individuals and entities that have ever existed....

 

The web links below contain short videos to make the how's and why's of catastrophic climate destabilization more simple as well as some of the most current research found in books like, Six Degrees: Our Future On a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas or, Our Last Chance to Save Humanity, by James Hansen. 

 

Sincerely,

Lawrence Wollersheim