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Spirit, Evolution & Eco-Community

Correcting the underestimation in the current IPCC future average global temperature projections...

Submitted by yathed on

 

 

It is useful to now update the IPCC’s (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,) four most recent 2014 average global temperature and time frame predictions while compensating for their known and regular underestimations of about 25-40%. Please keep in mind the IPCC’s 2014 prediction scenarios also do not include any calculations or adjustments for crossing more global warming tipping points during their prediction scenario periods...

Here is what the IPCC’s temperature and arrival date estimates might look like if their underestimation bias were corrected: 

In IPCC Scenario 1, their most optimistic projection, they say we will have only a 2° Celsius increase by 2100 (3.6° Fahrenheit). (Please note that in all 4 graphs below, CS stands for Climageddon Scenario and the 25% and 40% are underestimation correction levels for the 4 IPCC prediction levels.)

At the 25% underestimation level, this means that we will reach 2.5° Celsius (4.5° Fahrenheit) about 21 years sooner than they predict will occur—at about 2079. This puts us in the later part of Phase 1 of the Climageddon Scenario, or more likely, in the beginning of Phase 2.

Correcting_IPCC_Prediction_Scenarios-01.png

At the 40% underestimation level, we will reach 2.9° Celsius (5.2°+ Fahrenheit) roughly 34 years sooner than they predict—at about 2066. This puts us somewhere within Phase 2 of the Climageddon Scenario.  

In IPCC Scenario 2, their more likely projection, they say we will have only a 3° Celsius increase by 2100 (5.4° Fahrenheit). 

At the 25% underestimation level, this means we will reach 3.5° Celsius (6.9° Fahrenheit) about 21 years sooner than they predict—at about 2079. This puts us in or near Phase 3 of the Climageddon Scenario.  

At the 40% underestimation level, we will reach 4.2° Celsius (7.5° Fahrenheit) about 34 years sooner than they predict—at about 2066. This puts us in or near Phase 4 of the Climageddon Scenario.

Correcting_IPCC_Prediction_Scenarios-02.png

 

In IPCC Scenario 3, their less optimistic projection, they say we will have only a 4° Celsius increase by 2100 (7.2°+ Fahrenheit). 

At the 25% underestimation level, this means we will reach 5° Celsius (about 9° Fahrenheit)21 years sooner than they predict—at about 2079. This puts us in or near the chaos and collapse of Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario.  

At the 40% underestimation level, we will reach 5.6° Celsius (10° Fahrenheit) 34 years soonerthan they predict—at about 2066. This also puts us in or closer to phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario.

Correcting_IPCC_Prediction_Scenarios-03.png

In IPCC Scenario 4, their least optimistic projection, they say we will have only a 6° or more Celsius increase by 2100 (10.8°+ Fahrenheit). A 6° Celsius increase in average global temperature is the end of most human life as we know it.

At the 25% underestimation level, this means that we will reach 7.8° Celsius (about 13.5°Fahrenheit) at about 2079. This will put us well into Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario.  

At the 40% underestimation level, we will reach 8.4° Celsius (about 15° Fahrenheit) —at about 2066. This could put us in Phase 5 of the Climageddon Scenario faster than anyone is ready for. 

Correcting_IPCC_Prediction_Scenarios-04.png

 

(Please note: In the four corrected IPCC graphs above, we are using recalculated temperature estimates to extrapolate approximate placement positions for the graph’s new projected timelines. Rather than show the precise new time frames of a particular recalculated temperature, these four graphs illustrate relative differences from the IPCC’s predicted temperatures and time frames. These four graphs additionally point toward how unanticipated higher temperatures will also dramatically accelerate consequence arrival times and increase consequence severity. It is difficult to precisely recalculate new timeframes with temperature calculations only, and because there is always a delay in the actual time that it takes to get to higher temperatures because of inertia and momentum factors in climate systems and subsystems.)

March 11, 2018

 
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